[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 12 issued 2335 UT on 16 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 17 09:35:42 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, the largest 
event being a C3.6 flare from region 1543 (N22W48). This was 
accompanied by type II and IV radio sweeps and an associated 
CME first observed in STEREO-A imagery at 16/1339. This CME requires 
further analysis to determine its likely geoeffectiveness. Low 
activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind remained 
between 450-500km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz fluctuated between 
+/-5nT until around 15UT and has subsequently maintained a southward 
bias to -5nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled with an
active period

Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22213432
      Darwin              10   22223332
      Townsville          17   33324433
      Learmonth           11   22223432
      Norfolk Island       8   22213321
      Camden              12   22214432
      Canberra             6   11113321
      Hobart              12   12214432    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
      Casey               19   354213--
      Mawson              23   5432344-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2012 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
18 Aug    12    Unsettled
19 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet to unsettled over 
the last 24 hours, with an active period across much of the Australian 
region from 12-18UT. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected 
for the next 2 days, with the possibility of active periods and 
high-latitude minor storm periods, especially on 17-Aug due to 
effects of a 14-Aug CME. Unsettled periods are likely to persist 
on 19-Aug due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Aug    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For the last 24 hours, MUFs were mostly near monthly 
predicted values, with some night-time depressions at low latitudes. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days, with a chance 
of high-latitude depressions 17-18 Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 451 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    75600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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