[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 12 issued 2329 UT on 15 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 16 09:29:36 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Aug             17 Aug             18 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, the largest 
event being a C1 flare from region 1542 (S12W40). No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. Low activity is expected for the next 3 days. 
The solar wind remained steady at ~500km/s over the UT day. The 
IMF Bz was close to neutral.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111111
      Darwin               3   21-10112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   32120212
      Norfolk Island       3   21111111
      Camden               2   10111111
      Canberra             1   10110101
      Hobart               2   10111111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
      Casey               10   43321112
      Mawson              20   42233226

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug : 
      Darwin              42   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2222 1113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Aug     6    Quiet
17 Aug    12    Unsettled
18 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the Australian region 
for the last 24 hours, with some unsettled to storm periods in 
Antarctica. Expect mostly quiet activity for 16 Aug. Possibility 
of active periods and high-latitude minor storm periods on 17-Aug 
due to effects of a 14-Aug CME. Unsettled periods are likely 
to persist until 18-Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Aug    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal with some night-time 
depressions at low latitudes. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days, with a chance of high-latitude depressions 
17-18 Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    88700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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