[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 12 issued 2333 UT on 14 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 15 09:33:45 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. C-class
flares were emitted by regions 1542 (S14W17) and 1543 (N20W14),
the largest being a C3.5 from the latter at 14/0031UT. An associated
CME observed at 14/0139 could be mildly geoeffective on 17-Aug.
Another CME observed at 14/0324 was not Earth-directed. Low activity
is expected for the next 3 days, with a small chance of M-class
events. The solar wind remained steady at ~500km/s over the UT
day. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 12121211
Darwin 5 22121211
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22222312
Norfolk Island 4 12121111
Camden 4 12121211
Canberra 4 12121201
Hobart 4 12122201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Casey 12 43232312
Mawson 18 44333314
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2222 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 6 Quiet
16 Aug 6 Quiet
17 Aug 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet over the Australian
region for the last 24 hours, with some unsettled to active periods
in Antarctica. Expect mostly quiet activity for 15-16 Aug. Possibility
of active periods and high-latitude minor storm periods on 17-Aug
due to CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal with some depressions
at low latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next
3 days, with a chance of some high-latitude depressions late
on 17-Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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