[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 12 issued 2333 UT on 14 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 15 09:33:45 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. C-class 
flares were emitted by regions 1542 (S14W17) and 1543 (N20W14), 
the largest being a C3.5 from the latter at 14/0031UT. An associated 
CME observed at 14/0139 could be mildly geoeffective on 17-Aug. 
Another CME observed at 14/0324 was not Earth-directed. Low activity 
is expected for the next 3 days, with a small chance of M-class 
events. The solar wind remained steady at ~500km/s over the UT 
day. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12121211
      Darwin               5   22121211
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            7   22222312
      Norfolk Island       4   12121111
      Camden               4   12121211
      Canberra             4   12121201
      Hobart               4   12122201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
      Casey               12   43232312
      Mawson              18   44333314

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2222 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug     6    Quiet
16 Aug     6    Quiet
17 Aug    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet over the Australian 
region for the last 24 hours, with some unsettled to active periods 
in Antarctica. Expect mostly quiet activity for 15-16 Aug. Possibility 
of active periods and high-latitude minor storm periods on 17-Aug 
due to CME effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Aug    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal with some depressions 
at low latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
3 days, with a chance of some high-latitude depressions late 
on 17-Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   149000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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