[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 12 issued 2330 UT on 13 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 14 09:30:08 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. C-class 
flares were emitted by region 1543, the largest being a C2.8 
at 13/1240UT. As associated CME appears to be directed mostly 
above the ecliptic and is not expected to be geoeffective, and 
neither is an earlier CME from the west limb. Low activity is 
expected for the next 3 days, with a small chance of M-class 
events. The solar wind speed gradually rose from ~400km/s to 
~~500km/s over the UT day and is expected to remain elevated for 
14-Aug due to effects from CH528, north of the solar equator. 
The IMF Bz remained mostly northward up to 8nT, but for the last 
few hours has fluctuated between +/-5nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22232321
      Darwin               6   22222221
      Townsville           7   22222321
      Learmonth            9   22232331
      Camden               7   11231322
      Canberra             6   11231320
      Hobart               7   12231321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     8   01241330
      Casey               12   34321232
      Mawson              23   23322562

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2221 2133     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Aug     6    Quiet
16 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled over the 
Australian region over the last 24 hours, with isolated active 
and storm level periods in Antarctica. Expect quiet to unsettled 
geomagnetic activity for 14-Aug with isolated cases of active 
levels at high latitudes while coronal hole CH528 remains in 
a geoeffective position.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Aug    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal with some depressions at low 
latitudes. Spread F conditions continue during local nighttime 
for the most southerly Australasian region and are likely to 
continue 14-Aug due to moderate high latitude geomagnetic activity 
driven by elevated solar wind speeds from solar coronal holes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    61900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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