[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 12 issued 2348 UT on 12 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 13 09:48:40 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Aug             14 Aug             15 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 12 Aug with only B class 
flares despite the 7 numbered sunspot groups on the disc. However 
regions 1542 and 1543 retain small M flare potential. Two small 
slow CMEs from the filament on the western side launched 9Aug 
appeared not to have contacted the geomagnetic field. The CME 
from AR1540 on 11 Aug associated with an M1 flare should not 
be geoeffective as it's speed was a low 400-500km/s and AR1540 
was somewhat west of the most geoeffective longitudes. A solar 
sector boundary crossing occurred ~13UT and the effect of a coronal 
hole high-speed wind stream from CH527, slightly south of the 
solar equator, should follow during 13 Aug. The speeds should 
remain elevated for 14Aug as the effect of CH528,north of the 
solar equator, rotates into geoeffective longitude. Solar wind 
speeds were moderate 300-400km/s during 12 Aug. IMF Bz fluctuated 
in the +/-5nT range until ~19UT when it turned northward to ~10nT, 
shutting off geomagnetic merging.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212122
      Darwin               6   22212122
      Townsville           8   23212232
      Learmonth            6   22212222
      Camden               5   12112122
      Canberra             4   12102122
      Hobart               4   11102122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   01100011
      Casey                7   23211132
      Mawson              22   44312263

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1000 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet at mid latitudes. Isolated 
cases of Unsettled at low latitudes, possibly due to ionospheric 
currents from equatorial anomaly activity. Occasional Active 
and Storm levels near the auroral oval driven by IMF Bz rapid 
fluctuations associated with solar sector boundary crossing. 
Expect Unsettled geomagnetic activity for 13-Aug with isolated 
cases of Active levels at high latitudes. A solar sector boundary 
crossing occurred ~13UT and the effect of a coronal hole high-speed 
wind stream from CH527, should follow during 13 Aug. The speeds 
should remain elevated for 14Aug as the next coronal hole CH528 
rotates into geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds were moderate 
300-400km/s during 12 Aug. IMF Bz fluctuated in the +/-5nT range, 
sometimes rapidly, until ~19UT when it turned northward to ~10nT, 
shutting off geomagnetic merging, which may initially blunt the 
effect of solar wind speed rise if it continues well into 13 
Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Aug    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal with some depressions at low 
latitudes in the north due to continuing equatorial anomaly effects 
driven by neutral wind and electric field conditions. Spread 
F conditions continue during local nighttime for the most southerly 
Australasian region and are likely to continue 13-14 Aug due 
to moderate high latitude geomagnetic activity driven by elevated 
solar wind speeds from solar coronal holes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    40000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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