[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 12 issued 2337 UT on 11 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 12 09:37:43 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    1221UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for 11-Aug due to a M-class/2N 
flare from active region 1540 at 1220UT. This may result in a 
glancing blow at Earth in approximately three days time. C-class 
flares also noted from active regions 1542 and 1544. Expect Low 
to Moderate activity for 12-Aug with a chance of a M-class flares 
from regions 1540 and 1542. Two small CMEs from the filament 
on the western side are predicted to barely glance the Earth 
today at the same time a coronal hole high-speed wind stream 
becomes geoeffective. The IMF Bz has gone southward over the 
last 14 hours (-6nT peak) resulting in weak reconnection. The 
solar wind speed is in the normal/low 350-300 km/s range, however 
expect moderately elevated levels later in the UT day, 12-Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11001111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           6   12212222
      Learmonth            5   31012121
      Norfolk Island       0   01000---
      Camden               1   00001011
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Hobart               1   00001011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                4   12111121
      Mawson              10   00202344

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1101 1021     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug    12    Unsettled
13 Aug     7    Quiet
14 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet with isolated 
cases of Unsettled to Active levels at high latitudes due to 
weak reconnection with the IMF. Expect Unsettled geomagnetic 
activity for 12-Aug with isolated cases of Active levels at high 
latitudes. On 13 Aug expect a return to Quiet levels of geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Aug    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug    77    Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug    77    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal with some depressions at low 
latitudes in the north due to prevailing neutral wind and electric 
field conditions in the equatorial anomaly. Expect minor depressions 
for 12 August in the Australian/Antarctic regions due to a slight 
increase in geomagnetic activity. Spread F conditions continue 
during late local nighttime early morning hours for the Hobart 
region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    26300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list