[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 12 issued 2312 UT on 10 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 11 09:12:33 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Aug             12 Aug             13 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for 10-Aug, with several C-class 
flares from AR1542 and new AR1544. Expect similar for 11-Aug 
with a chance of M-class flares from AR 1542. Two small CMEs 
from the filament on the western side are predicted to barely 
glance the Earth on 12th Aug at the same time a coronal hole 
high-speed wind stream becomes geoeffective. IMF Bz remained 
between +5/-3nT over the last 24 hour. The solar wind speed is 
in the normal/low 350-300 km/s range.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12100001
      Darwin               2   12100001
      Townsville           4   12211112
      Learmonth            4   22211111
      Norfolk Island       2   12000011
      Camden               2   12100001
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               1   12000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                3   13201000
      Mawson               2   12110001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2212 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Aug     6    Quiet
12 Aug    12    Unsettled
13 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet. Expect mostly 
Quiet geomagnetic activity for 11-Aug. Two small CMEs from the 
filament on the western side are predicted to glance the Earth 
on 12th Aug at the same time a coronal hole high-speed wind stream 
becomes geoeffective, probably causing Unsettled conditions at 
low to mid latitudes with isolated periods of Active levels at 
high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Aug    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal with some nighttime depressions 
at low latitudes in the north due to prevailing neutral wind 
and electric field conditions in the equatorial anomaly. Expect 
similar conditions for 11 August. A high speed solar wind stream 
from a coronal hole should be effective 12 Aug, causing Unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions, translating to slightly more suppressed 
MUFs. Spread F conditions continue during late local nighttime 
early morning hours for the Hobart region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    49300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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