[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 12 issued 2312 UT on 10 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 11 09:12:33 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for 10-Aug, with several C-class
flares from AR1542 and new AR1544. Expect similar for 11-Aug
with a chance of M-class flares from AR 1542. Two small CMEs
from the filament on the western side are predicted to barely
glance the Earth on 12th Aug at the same time a coronal hole
high-speed wind stream becomes geoeffective. IMF Bz remained
between +5/-3nT over the last 24 hour. The solar wind speed is
in the normal/low 350-300 km/s range.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 12100001
Darwin 2 12100001
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 4 22211111
Norfolk Island 2 12000011
Camden 2 12100001
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 12000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 3 13201000
Mawson 2 12110001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2212 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 6 Quiet
12 Aug 12 Unsettled
13 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet. Expect mostly
Quiet geomagnetic activity for 11-Aug. Two small CMEs from the
filament on the western side are predicted to glance the Earth
on 12th Aug at the same time a coronal hole high-speed wind stream
becomes geoeffective, probably causing Unsettled conditions at
low to mid latitudes with isolated periods of Active levels at
high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal with some nighttime depressions
at low latitudes in the north due to prevailing neutral wind
and electric field conditions in the equatorial anomaly. Expect
similar conditions for 11 August. A high speed solar wind stream
from a coronal hole should be effective 12 Aug, causing Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions, translating to slightly more suppressed
MUFs. Spread F conditions continue during late local nighttime
early morning hours for the Hobart region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 49300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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