[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 12 issued 2348 UT on 09 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 10 09:48:24 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Aug             11 Aug             12 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for 09-Aug, with several C-class 
flares mostly from AR 1542 and new AR1544 to the SE of the spot 
conglomerate AR1538/39/41/42. Expect similar for 9-Aug with <20% 
chance of M-class flares. Two small CMEs from the filament on 
the western side are predicted to barely glance the Earth on 
12th Aug at the same time a coronal hole high-speed wind stream 
becomes geoeffective. The largest flare, C8 from AR1542 did not 
appear to have the type II radio burst signature associated with 
a CME even though it was of substantial duration ~1 hour. AR1542 
is also well east of the usual CME geoeffective zone at present. 
IMF Bz was mildly southward till about 1500UT, slightly below 
the threshold for effective geomagnetic merging, and then turned 
northward. The solar wind speed is in the normal/low 350-300 
km/s range, declining during the day and turbulent until the 
Bz northward turning at 15UT when a density and temperature drop 
also occurred.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22110111
      Darwin               3   22110111
      Townsville           6   22221222
      Learmonth            4   22121111
      Norfolk Island       2   22110010
      Camden               2   12110001
      Canberra             1   12010000
      Hobart               2   11120000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   11221000
      Casey                3   22111010
      Mawson              11   53311110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             11   5122 1312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Aug     6    Quiet
11 Aug     6    Quiet
12 Aug    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet at mid and low 
latitudes. Unsettled near the auroral zone early in the UT day 
due to mild Bz southward and turbulent solar wind. Expect Quiet 
Geomagnetic activity for 10-11 Aug with isolated Unsettled-Active 
levels at high latitudes if Bz southward >-5nT for >6 hours. 
Two small CMEs from the filament on the western side are predicted 
to barely glance the Earth on 12th Aug at the same time a coronal 
hole high-speed wind stream becomes geoeffective, probably causing 
Unsettled conditions at low-mid latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Aug    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Aug    85    0 to 10% below predicted monthly values
11 Aug    85    0 to 10% below predicted monthly values
12 Aug    85    0 to 15% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal with some nighttime depressions 
at low latitudes in the north due to prevailing neutral wind 
and electric field conditions in the equatorial anomaly. Expect 
similar conditions for 10-11 August. A high speed solar wind 
stream from a coronal hole should be effective 12 Aug, causing 
Unsettled geomagnetic conditions, translating to slightly more 
suppressed MUFs.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    94100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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