[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 12 issued 2350 UT on 08 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 9 09:50:24 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Aug             10 Aug             11 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for 08-Aug, with several C-class 
flares mostly from AR 1540 and AR 1542. Expect the same for 9-Aug 
with a slight chance of a M-class flare. Glancing blow from CME 
associated with a long-duration C-class flare on 04-Aug had minimal 
effect on the near Earth environment. Noted erupting filament 
in the central south west quadrant at 08-Aug/0200UT. Expect associated 
CME to be weakly geoeffective. For 8-Aug the IMF Bz was mostly 
northward till about 1500UT and turned southward, mainly less 
than -3nT. The solar wind is at normal levels and is expected 
to remain at that level for the UT day.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   31121211
      Darwin               6   32121212
      Townsville           8   32222222
      Learmonth            6   -2222221
      Norfolk Island       4   31111110
      Camden               5   31121211
      Canberra             3   21121200
      Hobart               5   31121111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     6   31141000
      Casey               10   34231221
      Mawson              17   53312234

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3012 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Aug     6    Quiet
11 Aug     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet to Unsettled with 
a short period of Active levels early in the UT day at high latitudes. 
Expect Quiet to Unsettled Geomagnetic activity for 9-Aug with 
isolated cases of Active levels expected at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Aug    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 65% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Aug    85    Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug    85    Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal to slightly enhanced 08-Aug 
with a depression noted at Cocos Island during local night. Hobart 
showed spread F between 11-20UT, local night. Mawson ionograms 
had weak traces. Expect similar conditions over the UT day, 09-Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    75200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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