[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 12 issued 2345 UT on 07 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 8 09:45:25 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Aug             09 Aug             10 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for 07-Aug, with C-class flares 
mostly from AR 1542 which still holds M-flare potential. Expect 
Moderate solar activity 08-Aug. The CME associated with a long-duration 
C-class flare on 04-Aug from the filament east of the central 
meridian is expected to have a glancing impact early UT on 08-Aug. 
The filament has rotated to a geoeffective position and retains 
CME potential. IMF Bz was largely southward during the UT day, 
facilitating merging with the geomagnetic field, and trending 
towards -10nT near 24UT, strengthening the merging. Solar wind 
has been steady near 400km/s for the last 24h.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21121112
      Darwin               4   21111112
      Townsville           6   22221222
      Learmonth            6   22121222
      Norfolk Island       3   21120011
      Camden               4   21121112
      Canberra             3   11120012
      Hobart               3   20120012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     3   10130001
      Casey                7   23311122
      Mawson              24   42223165

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       NA
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   2323 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Aug    18    Unsettled to Active
09 Aug     6    Quiet
10 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the Australian region 
during 07-Aug. Conditions near the auroral oval were occasionally 
Unsettled to Active due to long periods of merging with the southward 
interplanetary magnetic field. Geomagnetic activity at mid and 
low latitudes are expected to be Unsettled to Active on 8 Aug 
due a glancing blow from a CME early in the UT day. High latitudes 
should experience Active to Minor Storm levels. The CME effectiveness 
will depend on the north or south polarity of it's initial magnetic 
field, southwards being more geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Aug    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Aug    70    0 to 10% below predicted monthly values
09 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal 07-Aug, with MUFs mostly near 
monthly values at mid-latitudes and more variable at low-latitudes 
with night depressions in northern Australia. The most southern 
Australian latitudes experienced strong nightime spread-F conditions, 
measured at Hobart, causing HF multipath fading. The ionosphere 
is stronger than average and T index is higher than the predicted 
monthly value due to a large number of smaller sunspots emitting 
ionising EUV. Early UT day 8 Aug a CME should strike a glancing 
blow causing Unsettled-Active geomagnetic conditions, slightly 
depressing MUFs, with recovery on the 9th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    57400 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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