[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 12 issued 2330 UT on 30 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 31 09:30:42 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1211UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at Moderate levels over the
last 24 hours. The greatest flare was an M1 just after 12UT with
several mid range C flares. The M flare and most of the C flare
activity were produced by an active region around the south-west
limb. Numerous small active regions are present on the visible
disc. The solar wind speed remains mildly elevated above normal
conditions at around 400-450 km/s with near neutral IMF Bz. Flare
activity is expected to remain mostly at Low levels with a chance
of further M flare activity, due mainly to the as yet unseen
region emerging around the south-west limb. The solar wind is
expected to become elevated on day 1 and remain so into day 2
due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind
stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 2 22100011
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 4 22111121
Norfolk Island 1 11100011
Camden 1 00100011
Canberra 0 00000011
Hobart 1 01100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 10000001
Casey 7 23311121
Mawson 6 21111133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1211 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 12 Unsettled
01 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. Unsettled activity, with
possible isolated Active periods, are expected for day 1 due
to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
Conditions for day 2 are expected to the Quiet to Unsettled before
returning to mostly Quiet on day 3.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been around predicted monthly values across
Australia, with variable conditions in equatorial regions. Mostly
normal to enhanced conditions are expected for day 1, with some
chance of depressed periods at local nighttime, particularly
in southern Australia. Some mildly depressed periods may be expected
for day 2, again more likely and more severe in southern regions.
Conditions for day 3 should be around predicted monthly values.
This variability described is expected due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity following the arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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