[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 12 issued 2330 UT on 30 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 31 09:30:42 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    1211UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Aug             01 Sep             02 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at Moderate levels over the 
last 24 hours. The greatest flare was an M1 just after 12UT with 
several mid range C flares. The M flare and most of the C flare 
activity were produced by an active region around the south-west 
limb. Numerous small active regions are present on the visible 
disc. The solar wind speed remains mildly elevated above normal 
conditions at around 400-450 km/s with near neutral IMF Bz. Flare 
activity is expected to remain mostly at Low levels with a chance 
of further M flare activity, due mainly to the as yet unseen 
region emerging around the south-west limb. The solar wind is 
expected to become elevated on day 1 and remain so into day 2 
due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind 
stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Darwin               2   22100011
      Townsville           5   12211122
      Learmonth            4   22111121
      Norfolk Island       1   11100011
      Camden               1   00100011
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Hobart               1   01100011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000001
      Casey                7   23311121
      Mawson               6   21111133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1211 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Aug    12    Unsettled
01 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. Unsettled activity, with 
possible isolated Active periods, are expected for day 1 due 
to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
Conditions for day 2 are expected to the Quiet to Unsettled before 
returning to mostly Quiet on day 3.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Aug    85

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Aug    90    Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs have been around predicted monthly values across 
Australia, with variable conditions in equatorial regions. Mostly 
normal to enhanced conditions are expected for day 1, with some 
chance of depressed periods at local nighttime, particularly 
in southern Australia. Some mildly depressed periods may be expected 
for day 2, again more likely and more severe in southern regions. 
Conditions for day 3 should be around predicted monthly values. 
This variability described is expected due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity following the arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar 
wind stream.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 491 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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