[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 12 issued 2331 UT on 05 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 6 09:31:56 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Aug             07 Aug             08 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low 05-Aug, with just minor C-class 
flare activity. Expect Low solar activity 06-Aug. The CME associated 
with a long-duration C-class flare on 04-Aug may have a glancing 
impact on 08-Aug. Solar wind speed continued to decline over 
the UT day, and is expected to remain below 400km/s.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11120011
      Darwin               4   22120012
      Townsville           5   12221122
      Learmonth            5   22121121
      Norfolk Island       2   11120011
      Camden               2   11120001
      Canberra             2   11020001
      Hobart               2   11110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   10020000
      Casey                4   12211111
      Mawson              12   22210335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2110 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Aug     5    Quiet
07 Aug     5    Quiet
08 Aug    18    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the Australian region 
during 05-Aug. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
Quiet for the next 2 days (06-07 Aug). A CME, expected to arrive 
early on 08-Aug, may produce Active levels on 08-Aug, with Minor 
storm periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Aug    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal 05-Aug, with MUFs mostly near 
predicted monthly values. Expect mostly Normal HF conditions 
for the next two days (06-07 Aug), with some degraded HF conditions 
at mid-high latitudes day 3 (08-Aug). MUFs are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    57900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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