[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 12 issued 2331 UT on 05 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 6 09:31:56 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Aug             07 Aug             08 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low 05-Aug, with just minor C-class 
flare activity. Expect Low solar activity 06-Aug. The CME associated 
with a long-duration C-class flare on 04-Aug may have a glancing 
impact on 08-Aug. Solar wind speed continued to decline over 
the UT day, and is expected to remain below 400km/s.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11120011
      Darwin               4   22120012
      Townsville           5   12221122
      Learmonth            5   22121121
      Norfolk Island       2   11120011
      Camden               2   11120001
      Canberra             2   11020001
      Hobart               2   11110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   10020000
      Casey                4   12211111
      Mawson              12   22210335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2110 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Aug     5    Quiet
07 Aug     5    Quiet
08 Aug    18    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the Australian region 
during 05-Aug. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
Quiet for the next 2 days (06-07 Aug). A CME, expected to arrive 
early on 08-Aug, may produce Active levels on 08-Aug, with Minor 
storm periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Aug    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal 05-Aug, with MUFs mostly near 
predicted monthly values. Expect mostly Normal HF conditions 
for the next two days (06-07 Aug), with some degraded HF conditions 
at mid-high latitudes day 3 (08-Aug). MUFs are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    57900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list