[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 12 issued 2348 UT on 04 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 5 09:48:20 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 139/93


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed during 
4 August. A long duration C3-flare was observed from solar region 
1539 during 4 August. An associated CME observed in both SOHO 
and STEREO satellite imagery appears predominantly directed towards 
the SE. WSA-ENLIL predictions forecast a glancing impact from 
this event during 8 August with only minor enhancements in solar 
wind speed. Predominantly C-class flare activity is expected 
for 5 August with the small chance of isolated M-class flares. 
Solar wind speeds continued to decline slowly during 4 August 
and are presently below 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated 
around neutral during 4 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11111212
      Darwin               4   11111212
      Townsville           6   12222212
      Learmonth            6   22211222
      Norfolk Island       2   12001111
      Camden               3   11101212
      Canberra             2   01101201
      Hobart               3   11001212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000100
      Casey                8   23221213
      Mawson              22   33311156

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2321 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug     5    Quiet
06 Aug     5    Quiet
07 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the Australian region 
during 4 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
Quiet for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal for 4 August and are 
expected to be mostly Normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Aug    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during 4 August. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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