[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 12 issued 2348 UT on 04 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 5 09:48:20 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed during
4 August. A long duration C3-flare was observed from solar region
1539 during 4 August. An associated CME observed in both SOHO
and STEREO satellite imagery appears predominantly directed towards
the SE. WSA-ENLIL predictions forecast a glancing impact from
this event during 8 August with only minor enhancements in solar
wind speed. Predominantly C-class flare activity is expected
for 5 August with the small chance of isolated M-class flares.
Solar wind speeds continued to decline slowly during 4 August
and are presently below 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated
around neutral during 4 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11111212
Darwin 4 11111212
Townsville 6 12222212
Learmonth 6 22211222
Norfolk Island 2 12001111
Camden 3 11101212
Canberra 2 01101201
Hobart 3 11001212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 8 23221213
Mawson 22 33311156
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2321 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 5 Quiet
06 Aug 5 Quiet
07 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the Australian region
during 4 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
Quiet for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal for 4 August and are
expected to be mostly Normal for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during 4 August. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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