[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 12 issued 2340 UT on 03 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 4 09:40:37 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Aug             05 Aug             06 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed during 
3 August. Predominantly C-class flare activity is expected for 
4 August with the small chance of isolated M-class flares. CME 
activity observed during 3 August is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Solar wind speeds declined slowly during 3 August from approximately 
500 km/s down to approximately 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component 
fluctuated between +5 and -5 nT during 3 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   23210111
      Darwin               5   23210102
      Townsville           8   23321221
      Learmonth            6   23221211
      Norfolk Island       3   22210110
      Camden               4   23210101
      Canberra             4   23210100
      Hobart               4   23210101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     4   13220000
      Casey                7   33221111
      Mawson              22   54532214

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             17   1002 5543     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Aug     6    Quiet
05 Aug     5    Quiet
06 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled for the 
Australian region during 3 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly Quiet for the next few days with the chance of isolated 
Unsettled levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal for 3 August and are 
expected to be mostly Normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Aug    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during 3 August. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    76400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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