[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 12 issued 2347 UT on 02 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 3 09:47:40 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed during 
2 August. Predominantly C-class flare activity is expected for 
3 August with the small chance of isolated M-class flares. CME 
activity observed during 2 August is not expected to be geoeffective. 
The anticipated weak arrival of a CME during 2 August was slightly 
more geoeffective than anticipated. A weak transient was observed 
in some solar wind parameters following which wind speeds increased 
slowly from approximately 400 km/s to 500 km/s. The IMF Bz component 
turned southward for several hours reaching values less than -10 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21023322
      Darwin              12   21124423
      Townsville          13   22224423
      Learmonth           14   22034433
      Norfolk Island       7   21023321
      Camden               7   11023322
      Canberra             7   11023322
      Hobart               5   10013321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    11   00005422
      Casey                8   22213223
      Mawson              21   21113356

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2211 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Aug     6    Quiet
05 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled for the 
Australian region during 2 August with some stations reaching 
Active levels as the result of the anticipated weak arrival of 
a CME. Minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes during 
2 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet 
for the next few days with the chance of Unsettled levels for 
3 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal for 2 August and are 
expected to be mostly Normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Aug    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during local daylight 
hours for 2 August with mild depression during local night predominantly 
for northern regions. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    92700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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