[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 12 issued 2346 UT on 01 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 2 09:46:55 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 150/105


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Aug             03 Aug             04 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            150/105

COMMENT: C-class flare activity was observed from a number of 
solar regions during 1 August. Recent CME activity is not expected 
to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds remained below 450 km/s 
during 1 August and are presently approximately 400 km/s. The 
IMF Bz component fluctuated between +5 and -5 nT during 1 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               4   22101112
      Townsville           6   12222122
      Learmonth            5   22112112
      Norfolk Island       2   21011011
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             1   01111001
      Hobart               3   11121011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   01021000
      Casey                6   23221112
      Mawson              22   43323316

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2211 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug     6    Quiet
04 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet during 1 August and is 
expected to be mostly Quiet for the next few days with the very 
small chance of isolated Active levels on 2 August due to the 
anticipated impact of a weak CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal-Fair for 1 August and 
are expected to be mostly Normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Aug    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during local daylight 
hours for 1 August with mild depression during local night. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 408 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    90100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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