[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 12 issued 2350 UT on 31 Jul 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 1 09:50:53 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Aug             02 Aug             03 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             150/105

COMMENT: C-class flare activity was observed from solar regions 
1538 and 1535. Type II radio sweeps and CMEs were observed in 
association with flares from these regions however, the CMEs appear 
predominantly eastward directed and are not expected to be geoeffective. 
A Type II radio sweep was observed in the Culgoora radio spectrograph 
at approximately 2209UT on 31 July with an estimated shock speed 
of 850 km/s. Solar wind speeds remained below 450 km/s during 
31 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21101111
      Darwin               2   21101101
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            5   22111212
      Norfolk Island       2   21001111
      Camden               3   21102101
      Canberra             1   11001101
      Hobart               2   11102101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   11001000
      Casey                6   23311111
      Mawson              17   53311115

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   2343 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet during 31 July and is 
expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled for the next few days 
with the chance of isolated Active levels on 2 August due to 
the anticipated impact of a weak CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal-fair for 30 July and 
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jul    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during local daylight 
hours for 31 July with mild depression during local night. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    97600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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