[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 12 issued 2350 UT on 31 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 1 09:50:53 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: C-class flare activity was observed from solar regions
1538 and 1535. Type II radio sweeps and CMEs were observed in
association with flares from these regions however, the CMEs appear
predominantly eastward directed and are not expected to be geoeffective.
A Type II radio sweep was observed in the Culgoora radio spectrograph
at approximately 2209UT on 31 July with an estimated shock speed
of 850 km/s. Solar wind speeds remained below 450 km/s during
31 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 21101111
Darwin 2 21101101
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 22111212
Norfolk Island 2 21001111
Camden 3 21102101
Canberra 1 11001101
Hobart 2 11102101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 11001000
Casey 6 23311111
Mawson 17 53311115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 2343 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet during 31 July and is
expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled for the next few days
with the chance of isolated Active levels on 2 August due to
the anticipated impact of a weak CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal-fair for 30 July and
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during local daylight
hours for 31 July with mild depression during local night. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 97600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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