[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 12 issued 2345 UT on 06 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 7 09:45:57 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    0438UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Aug             08 Aug             09 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate 06-Aug, with mostly C-class 
flare activity and a single M1 flare from AR 1542 just rotating 
onto the disc. Expect Moderate solar activity 07-Aug. AR1542 
issued limb CMEs that will not be geoeffective. The CME associated 
with a long-duration C-class flare on 04-Aug from the filament 
east of the central meridian may have a glancing impact early 
on 08-Aug. IMF Bz was largely southward during the UT day, facilitating 
merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed rose from 
~340km/s to ~380km/s at 16UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222211
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           8   22232222
      Learmonth            6   22222221
      Norfolk Island       4   22121111
      Camden               5   12122211
      Canberra             4   12121211
      Hobart               5   12222211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     8   12133320
      Casey                7   23111312
      Mawson              32   56322632

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1011 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Aug     5    Quiet
08 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active
09 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the Australian region 
during 06-Aug. Conditions near the auroral oval were Unsettled 
to Minor Storm due to long periods of merging with the southward 
interplanetary magnetic field. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly Quiet for 07 Aug. A CME launched on 4 Aug eastward 
of Earth is expected to strike a glancing blow early on 08-Aug, 
producing Unsettled to Active levels on 08-Aug at mid and low 
latitudes and Minor storm periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Aug    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Aug    80    0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
08 Aug    85    0 to 10% below predicted monthly values
09 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal 06-Aug, with MUFs mostly near 
or above predicted monthly values at mid-latitudes, more variable 
at low-latitudes and enhanced at high latitudes. The T index 
is higher than the predicted monthly value due to a large number 
of smaller sunspots emitting ionising EUV. Expect mostly Normal 
to slightly enhanced MUF conditions for the 07 Aug. On 8 Aug 
a CME should strike a glancing blow causing Unsettled-Active 
geomagnetic conditions, which should slightly depress MUFs, with 
recovery on the 9th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    39100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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