[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 12 issued 2353 UT on 28 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 29 09:54:01 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Apr             30 Apr             01 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
C-class flares from regions 1461(N10W89), 1466(N12W51), 
1467(N12E18),1469 (S19E14) and 1470(S17E61). No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low for 
the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class events. The solar 
wind speed continued its decline from 470km/s to around 420km/s 
by 17UT. Over the same period, the IMF Bz component mostly 
varied between +/-4nT. Coronal hole effects are likely to lift 
the wind speed from 01 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11121222
      Darwin               5   21121222
      Townsville           8   22222223
      Learmonth            6   22122221
      Norfolk Island       5   11121222
      Camden               5   11121222
      Canberra             3   01021221
      Hobart               7   12122322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     5   01032221
      Casey                9   23322222
      Mawson              21   33322355
      Davis               16   23332352

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3320 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Apr     6    Quiet
30 Apr     5    Quiet
01 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet today. Nearly 
similar conditions may be expected for the next 2 days. Some 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels (possibly up to 
Unsettled) may be possible on 01 May due to an expected 
effect of a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with isolated periods of 
minor depressions on mid latitudes were observed today. Mostly 
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 2 days with 
some possibility of periods of minor MUF depressions on high 
and some mid latitude locations on 01 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Apr    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
01 May    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the UT day, with mild mid-latitude depressions at times. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
next 2 days. Minor MUF depressions may be possible on 01 May 
at high and some mid latitude locations due to possible 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels from this day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:    44500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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