[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 12 issued 2349 UT on 29 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 30 09:49:08 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Apr             01 May             02 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
low C-class flares from regions 1465(S18W80), 1466(N13W65), 1469 
(S19W01) and 1471(S23E57). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days. The 
solar wind speed varied between 380km/s and 440 km/s during the 
UT day today. The IMF Bz component mostly varied between +3nT 
and -4nT, staying southwards for relatively longer periods of 
time. Coronal hole effects are likely to lift the wind speed 
from 01 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Mostly Quiet. Isolated Unsettled
periods at high latitudes.

Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111011
      Darwin               3   21102011
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            3   211210-1
      Norfolk Island       2   22100010
      Camden               3   21111011
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               3   22111011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   11011000
      Casey                6   23312011
      Mawson              18   54211053
      Davis               17   33322254

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1002 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Apr     7    Quiet
01 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
02 May    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet levels on 
most locations today with some periods of Unsettled levels at 
high latitudes. Nearly similar activity may be expected for 30 
April. Geomagnetic activity levels are then expected to rise 
to Unsettled levels on 01 May and Unsettled to Active levels 
on 02 May due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream 
from a recurrent coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
02 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with isolated periods of 
minor depressions on mid latitudes were observed today. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected on 30 April with some 
possibility of periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions 
on high and some mid latitude locations on 01 and 02 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Apr    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Apr    77    Near predicted monthly values
01 May    73    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
02 May    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the UT day, with mild mid-latitude depressions at times. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on 30 
April. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be possible on 01 
and 02 May at high and some mid latitude locations due to 
possible enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 444 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    92300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list