[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 12 issued 2331 UT on 27 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 28 09:31:11 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0825UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with C-class flares from regions 1469 (S19E44), 1459 (S24E28),
1465 (S18W46) and 1467 (N12E38) and an M1 flare from region 1466
(N11W30). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity
is expected to be low for the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class
events. The solar wind speed continued its decline to around
440km/s by 17UT. Over the same period, the IMF Bz component was
mostly neutral. Since then the wind speed has been ~480km/s and
Bz has fluctuated between +/-4nT. Coronal hole effects are likely
to lift the wind speed from late 29-Apr. The greater than 2MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit has been above 1000pfu
for much of the last 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 32211111
Darwin 7 32222122
Townsville 12 332-----
Learmonth 9 322-----
Norfolk Island 4 22211111
Camden 5 32211111
Canberra 3 21211001
Hobart 7 32222121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
Macquarie Island 7 222-----
Casey 19 343-----
Mawson 30 453-----
Davis 18 34433243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20 5622 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 5 Quiet
29 Apr 6 Mostly Quiet with possible unsettled conditions
late in the day
30 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Some active
to storm level periods observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days, with some
active periods likely from late 29-Apr due to expected coronal
hole effects. Planned maintenance by Geoscience Australia (from
27/0700 to 28/0700UT) has reduced the available geomagnetic data.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Apr 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the UT day, with mild mid-latitude depressions after ~08UT. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 602 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 87900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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