[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 12 issued 2331 UT on 27 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 28 09:31:11 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0825UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Apr             29 Apr             30 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours, 
with C-class flares from regions 1469 (S19E44), 1459 (S24E28), 
1465 (S18W46) and 1467 (N12E38) and an M1 flare from region 1466 
(N11W30). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity 
is expected to be low for the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class 
events. The solar wind speed continued its decline to around 
440km/s by 17UT. Over the same period, the IMF Bz component was 
mostly neutral. Since then the wind speed has been ~480km/s and 
Bz has fluctuated between +/-4nT. Coronal hole effects are likely 
to lift the wind speed from late 29-Apr. The greater than 2MeV 
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit has been above 1000pfu 
for much of the last 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   32211111
      Darwin               7   32222122
      Townsville          12   332-----
      Learmonth            9   322-----
      Norfolk Island       4   22211111
      Camden               5   32211111
      Canberra             3   21211001
      Hobart               7   32222121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     7   222-----
      Casey               19   343-----
      Mawson              30   453-----
      Davis               18   34433243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            48   (Unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             20   5622 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Apr     5    Quiet
29 Apr     6    Mostly Quiet with possible unsettled conditions 
                late in the day
30 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled 
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Some active 
to storm level periods observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly 
quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days, with some 
active periods likely from late 29-Apr due to expected coronal 
hole effects. Planned maintenance by Geoscience Australia (from 
27/0700 to 28/0700UT) has reduced the available geomagnetic data.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Apr    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the UT day, with mild mid-latitude depressions after ~08UT. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 602 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:    87900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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