[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 12 issued 2336 UT on 26 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 27 09:36:17 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours, 
with a single C-class flare from region 1465 (S18W39). Several 
southwest directed CMEs were observed in LASCO-C2 and SDO imagery. 
None of these is likely to be geoeffective. Solar activity is 
expected to remain low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
declined from ~700km/s to ~550km/s. The IMF Bz component was 
mostly neutral.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33323221
      Darwin              13   44323122
      Townsville          15   44333222
      Learmonth           14   44323222
      Norfolk Island       8   33222121
      Camden              10   33323221
      Canberra             7   33222111
      Hobart               9   33322221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    12   45120121
      Casey               12   44322122
      Mawson              49   76323256
      Davis               65   77333275

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             31   4443 3464     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active until 
~06UT after which mostly quiet to unsettled conditions 
prevailed in the Australian region. Major storm periods were 
observed in the Antarctic region until ~06UT and again after 
~17UT. In the IPS magnetometer data for 26 Apr, a weak (10nT) 
impulse was observed at 0514UT. This was most likely due to a 
glancing blow from the 23-Apr CME. Conditions are likely to remain 
at quiet to unsettled levels in the Australian region over the 
next 3 days, with the chance of active periods from 28-Apr due 
to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor

COMMENT: Periods of poor Antarctic region HF propagation conditions 
are expected to continue for the next 3 day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Apr    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr    85    Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the UT day, with enhancements over most of Australia before 8UT. 
Overnight depressions observed at Niue.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 596 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:   308000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list