[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 12 issued 2336 UT on 26 Apr 2012

Fri Apr 27 09:36:17 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 119/71

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours, 
with a single C-class flare from region 1465 (S18W39). Several 
southwest directed CMEs were observed in LASCO-C2 and SDO imagery. 
None of these is likely to be geoeffective. Solar activity is 
expected to remain low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
declined from ~700km/s to ~550km/s. The IMF Bz component was 
mostly neutral.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33323221
      Darwin              13   44323122
      Townsville          15   44333222
      Learmonth           14   44323222
      Norfolk Island       8   33222121
      Camden              10   33323221
      Canberra             7   33222111
      Hobart               9   33322221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    12   45120121
      Casey               12   44322122
      Mawson              49   76323256
      Davis               65   77333275

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             31   4443 3464     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active until 
~06UT after which mostly quiet to unsettled conditions 
prevailed in the Australian region. Major storm periods were 
observed in the Antarctic region until ~06UT and again after 
~17UT. In the IPS magnetometer data for 26 Apr, a weak (10nT) 
impulse was observed at 0514UT. This was most likely due to a 
glancing blow from the 23-Apr CME. Conditions are likely to remain 
at quiet to unsettled levels in the Australian region over the 
next 3 days, with the chance of active periods from 28-Apr due 
to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor

COMMENT: Periods of poor Antarctic region HF propagation conditions 
are expected to continue for the next 3 day.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Apr    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr    85    Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the UT day, with enhancements over most of Australia before 8UT. 
Overnight depressions observed at Niue.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 596 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:   308000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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