[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 12 issued 2333 UT on 25 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 26 09:33:15 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Apr             27 Apr             28 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a C1 flare from region 1459 (S20E70), a C3 from 1460 (N15W73) 
and a C1 flare from an unnumbered region near the southwest limb. 
Solar activity is expected to remain low for the next 3 days. 
The solar wind speed has increased further to ~700km/s due to 
a coronal hole high speed stream which is expected to wane during 
26-Apr. The IMF Bz component was southward from -3 to -10nT during 
most of the UT day until ~21UT. It is now around +5nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Unsettled to Active, with some
Quiet periods

Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      17   32433343
      Darwin              15   32333343
      Townsville          18   33433343
      Learmonth           22   32434354
      Norfolk Island      14   32432333
      Camden              18   22533343
      Canberra            12   21422333
      Hobart              17   32433343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    41   33664553
      Casey               22   44333444
      Mawson              82   66544686
      Davis               60   45553676

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             43   7652 3345     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Apr    25    Unsettled to active, with a chance of minor storm 
                periods.
27 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active
28 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 24 April and 
is current for 26-27 Apr. Geomagnetic activity remained mostly 
unsettled to active in the Australian region, with extended major 
storm periods in Antarctica. Activity is expected to remain elevated 
on 26-Apr with the expected arrival of the 23-Apr CME. Activity 
is likely to abate later on 27-Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of poor Antarctic region HF propagation conditions 
are expected to continue for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Apr   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Apr    95    Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values to 
mildly enhanced, with some nighttime depressions in Northern 
regions. Sporadic-E observed in parts of northern Australia 9-19UT. 
Spread-F observed in parts of southern Australia 13-22UT. MUFs 
are expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next 
3 days, with mild depressions in southern Australia due to geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   245000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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