[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 12 issued 2333 UT on 25 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 26 09:33:15 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C1 flare from region 1459 (S20E70), a C3 from 1460 (N15W73)
and a C1 flare from an unnumbered region near the southwest limb.
Solar activity is expected to remain low for the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed has increased further to ~700km/s due to
a coronal hole high speed stream which is expected to wane during
26-Apr. The IMF Bz component was southward from -3 to -10nT during
most of the UT day until ~21UT. It is now around +5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Unsettled to Active, with some
Quiet periods
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 17 32433343
Darwin 15 32333343
Townsville 18 33433343
Learmonth 22 32434354
Norfolk Island 14 32432333
Camden 18 22533343
Canberra 12 21422333
Hobart 17 32433343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
Macquarie Island 41 33664553
Casey 22 44333444
Mawson 82 66544686
Davis 60 45553676
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 43 7652 3345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 25 Unsettled to active, with a chance of minor storm
periods.
27 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 24 April and
is current for 26-27 Apr. Geomagnetic activity remained mostly
unsettled to active in the Australian region, with extended major
storm periods in Antarctica. Activity is expected to remain elevated
on 26-Apr with the expected arrival of the 23-Apr CME. Activity
is likely to abate later on 27-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of poor Antarctic region HF propagation conditions
are expected to continue for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values to
mildly enhanced, with some nighttime depressions in Northern
regions. Sporadic-E observed in parts of northern Australia 9-19UT.
Spread-F observed in parts of southern Australia 13-22UT. MUFs
are expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next
3 days, with mild depressions in southern Australia due to geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 245000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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