[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 12 issued 2337 UT on 24 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 25 09:37:42 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Apr             26 Apr             27 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours, 
with C-class flares from region 1462, now off the disc, and from 
new regions 1469 (S21E68) and 1467 (N14E72). A CME associated 
with the flare from region 1467 was first observed in LASCO C2 
imagery at 24/0812UT and is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with a chance 
of M-class activity. Effects of a coronal hole high-speed stream 
occurred earlier than expected, raising the solar wind speed 
to ~450 km/s from ~03UT. The wind speed has since increased to 
range between 500-650km/s. A prolonged period of negative IMF 
Bz occurred until ~05UT. Another such period started at ~15UT 
and is still current.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Unsettled to Active with
isolated Quiet periods

Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   33413333
      Darwin              17   44412333
      Townsville          18   43423343
      Learmonth           15   43323333
      Norfolk Island      12   33412232
      Camden              15   33413333
      Canberra            12   33312333
      Hobart              18   34413343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    26   44515343
      Casey               14   33432233
      Mawson              83   77432386
      Davis               40   55432374

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             31                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             30   2342 2466     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Apr    20    Unsettled to Active
26 Apr    25    Active
27 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed 
over the Australian region, with isolated quiet periods. Antarctic 
conditions varied from quiet to major storm levels. Disturbed 
conditions are likely for the next 3 days due to a combination 
of continuing coronal hole effects and the expected impact on 
26-Apr of the CME from 23-Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor
26 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor

COMMENT: Periods of poor Antarctic region HF propagation conditions 
are expected to continue for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Apr    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Apr    85    Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
27 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values during 
local daytime with some nighttime depressions in Northern regions. 
Depressions observed in Southern Australia, with spread-F from 
15-20UT. MUFs are expected to be around predicted monthly values 
for the remainder of the forecast period with mild depressions 
due to continuing geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    54800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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