[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 12 issued 2340 UT on 23 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 24 09:40:04 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Several B and C-class flares were observed over the
last 24 hours, the largest being C2 events from regions 1465
(S18E05) and 1461 (N14W17). Solar activity is expected to be
low over the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class activity.
Two CMEs were first observed in STEREO-A imagery at 23/1509UT
and 23/1809UT. The first is not expected to be geoeffective.
The second is directly mostly below the ecliptic plane, but further
analysis is required to determine its likely effect. A weak shock
was observed in the solar wind at 0225UT on 23 Apr lifting the
wind speed to ~400km/s. ACE EPAM data indicated an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 23/0245UT. Both these effects
were most likely due to a glancing blow from the 19-Apr CME.
The IMF Bz component has been -15 to -12nT for the last 8 hours.
Since the earlier shock, solar wind speed has declined gradually
and is now ~350km/s. Mild coronal hole effects are likely to
increase solar wind speed slightly from late on 25-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Active with some minor
storm periods.
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 16 24323343
Darwin 18 24323353
Townsville 15 24322--4
Learmonth 20 25323-44
Norfolk Island 10 23313232
Camden 14 13323343
Canberra 10 03212342
Hobart 14 23313343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
Macquarie Island 19 03303355
Casey 20 253134-4
Mawson 44 45523566
Davis 21 35422344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3322 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Apr 12 Unsettled
26 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly unsettled with
some quiet and minor storm periods in the Australian region and
major storm periods in Antarctica. In the IPS magnetometer data
for 23 Apr, a weak (15nT) impulse was observed at 0322UT, most
likely due to the 19-Apr CME. Unsettled to active conditions
are expected for 24-Apr. Mild coronal hole effects are likely
to cause unsettled conditions to continue during 25-26 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of poor HF propagation conditions are expected
to continue for 24-Apr in the Antarctic region.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values during
local daytime with some daytime enhancements in Northern regions.
MUFs are expected to be around predicted monthly values for the
remainder of the forecast period with mild depressions likely
on 24-Apr due to recent geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 53500 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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