[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 12 issued 2340 UT on 23 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 24 09:40:04 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Apr             25 Apr             26 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Several B and C-class flares were observed over the 
last 24 hours, the largest being C2 events from regions 1465 
(S18E05) and 1461 (N14W17). Solar activity is expected to be 
low over the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class activity. 
Two CMEs were first observed in STEREO-A imagery at 23/1509UT 
and 23/1809UT. The first is not expected to be geoeffective. 
The second is directly mostly below the ecliptic plane, but further 
analysis is required to determine its likely effect. A weak shock 
was observed in the solar wind at 0225UT on 23 Apr lifting the 
wind speed to ~400km/s. ACE EPAM data indicated an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 23/0245UT. Both these effects 
were most likely due to a glancing blow from the 19-Apr CME. 
The IMF Bz component has been -15 to -12nT for the last 8 hours. 
Since the earlier shock, solar wind speed has declined gradually 
and is now ~350km/s. Mild coronal hole effects are likely to 
increase solar wind speed slightly from late on 25-Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Active with some minor
storm periods.

Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      16   24323343
      Darwin              18   24323353
      Townsville          15   24322--4
      Learmonth           20   25323-44
      Norfolk Island      10   23313232
      Camden              14   13323343
      Canberra            10   03212342
      Hobart              14   23313343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    19   03303355
      Casey               20   253134-4
      Mawson              44   45523566
      Davis               21   35422344

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3322 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active
25 Apr    12    Unsettled
26 Apr    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly unsettled with 
some quiet and minor storm periods in the Australian region and 
major storm periods in Antarctica. In the IPS magnetometer data 
for 23 Apr, a weak (15nT) impulse was observed at 0322UT, most 
likely due to the 19-Apr CME. Unsettled to active conditions 
are expected for 24-Apr. Mild coronal hole effects are likely 
to cause unsettled conditions to continue during 25-26 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of poor HF propagation conditions are expected 
to continue for 24-Apr in the Antarctic region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Apr    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values during 
local daytime with some daytime enhancements in Northern regions. 
MUFs are expected to be around predicted monthly values for the 
remainder of the forecast period with mild depressions likely 
on 24-Apr due to recent geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    53500 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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