[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 12 issued 2330 UT on 22 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 23 09:30:15 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with several C1 flares. 
A filament eruption was seen in SDO imagery in the south western 
limb of the Sun at around 1345UT. An associated CME is visible 
in SOHO and STEREO images but does not appear to be Earth directed. 
The solar wind speed is ranging around 340 km/s. The IMF Bz component 
was southward by up to 8nT prior to 09UT after which it ranged 
between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the 
next 3 days with some chance of isolated M-class activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23222211
      Darwin               7   32222112
      Townsville          11   33332222
      Learmonth            8   32232221
      Norfolk Island       4   22221110
      Camden               8   33222211
      Canberra             4   13220100
      Hobart               7   23222221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    11   23343210
      Casey                9   33331120
      Mawson              22   55432241
      Davis               17   53432231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1001 1243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr     7    Quiet
24 Apr     7    Quiet
25 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Isolated Unsettled activity occurred prior to 12UT after 
which conditions were Quiet. Conditions are expected to be mostly 
Quiet for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Good HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Apr   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values during 
local daytime with daytime enhancements of up to 15% seen during 
local day in Northern regions. MUFs are expected to be around 
predicted monthly values for the remainder of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    57000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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