[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 12 issued 2329 UT on 21 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 22 09:29:34 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with the most intense flare
being a C2 from region 11460(N16W27). No Earthward directed CMEs
were observed. The solar wind conditions were ambient until around
16UT when the density and speed increased somewhat and the IMF
Bz component swung southward to around -8nT and has remained
southward greater than -5nT since then. This is most likely due
to a glancing blow from a CME. Solar wind conditions are expected
to revert to ambient over the next 12 hours. Solar activity is
expected to remain Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21110122
Darwin 5 21110123
Townsville 7 22221232
Learmonth 7 22-11232
Norfolk Island 2 11010021
Camden 3 11110022
Canberra 1 10000021
Hobart 5 21110132
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 00000021
Casey 6 22211132
Mawson 21 40110265
Davis 16 22221263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2332 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 7 Quiet
23 Apr 7 Quiet
24 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet with some isolated
Unsettle periods near the end of the UT day. Isolated Unsettled
conditions may be experienced for the first half of April 22
UT before returning to Quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Good HF propagation conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values during
local daytime with depressions of up to 25% seen during local
night in Northern regions. MUFs are expected to be around predicted
monthly values for the remainder of the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 27400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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