[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 12 issued 2329 UT on 21 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 22 09:29:34 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with the most intense flare 
being a C2 from region 11460(N16W27). No Earthward directed CMEs 
were observed. The solar wind conditions were ambient until around 
16UT when the density and speed increased somewhat and the IMF 
Bz component swung southward to around -8nT and has remained 
southward greater than -5nT since then. This is most likely due 
to a glancing blow from a CME. Solar wind conditions are expected 
to revert to ambient over the next 12 hours. Solar activity is 
expected to remain Low for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21110122
      Darwin               5   21110123
      Townsville           7   22221232
      Learmonth            7   22-11232
      Norfolk Island       2   11010021
      Camden               3   11110022
      Canberra             1   10000021
      Hobart               5   21110132    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   00000021
      Casey                6   22211132
      Mawson              21   40110265
      Davis               16   22221263

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2332 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr     7    Quiet
23 Apr     7    Quiet
24 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet with some isolated 
Unsettle periods near the end of the UT day. Isolated Unsettled 
conditions may be experienced for the first half of April 22 
UT before returning to Quiet.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Good HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Apr    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values during 
local daytime with depressions of up to 25% seen during local 
night in Northern regions. MUFs are expected to be around predicted 
monthly values for the remainder of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 324 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    27400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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