[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 12 issued 2333 UT on 20 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 21 09:33:24 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Apr             22 Apr             23 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with several C1 flares. 
Further to yesterdays report regarding the CME observed late 
in the day, LASCO and further STEREO imagery in now available 
for analysis and suggests the CME is unlikely to be geoeffective. 
Significant growth has been observed in several of the visible 
active regions. The solar wind speed is at ambient levels. The 
IMF Bz component has a sustained period of southward orientation 
greater than -5 nT between 03-10UT. Solar flare activity is expected 
to be low to moderate over the next 3 days with some chance of 
isolated M-class activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   13321111
      Darwin               7   23321111
      Townsville           8   23322221
      Learmonth            6   23222111
      Norfolk Island       6   13321011
      Camden               5   03322010
      Canberra             2   03200000
      Hobart               7   13322111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     9   04333000
      Casey                6   23311111
      Mawson              18   35523212
      Davis               10   23333121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1100 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Apr     7    Quiet
22 Apr     5    Quiet
23 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled in the first 
half of the UT day before returning to Quiet. Quiet conditions 
are expected to persist for the next 3 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Good HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Apr    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Apr    85    Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr    85    Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values during 
local daytime with depressions of up to 15% seen during local 
night in Northern and Equatorial regions. MUFs are expected to 
be around predicted monthly values for the remainder of the forecast 
period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    44800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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