[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 12 issued 2333 UT on 20 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 21 09:33:24 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with several C1 flares.
Further to yesterdays report regarding the CME observed late
in the day, LASCO and further STEREO imagery in now available
for analysis and suggests the CME is unlikely to be geoeffective.
Significant growth has been observed in several of the visible
active regions. The solar wind speed is at ambient levels. The
IMF Bz component has a sustained period of southward orientation
greater than -5 nT between 03-10UT. Solar flare activity is expected
to be low to moderate over the next 3 days with some chance of
isolated M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 13321111
Darwin 7 23321111
Townsville 8 23322221
Learmonth 6 23222111
Norfolk Island 6 13321011
Camden 5 03322010
Canberra 2 03200000
Hobart 7 13322111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
Macquarie Island 9 04333000
Casey 6 23311111
Mawson 18 35523212
Davis 10 23333121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1100 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 7 Quiet
22 Apr 5 Quiet
23 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled in the first
half of the UT day before returning to Quiet. Quiet conditions
are expected to persist for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Good HF propagation conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 85 Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 85 Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values during
local daytime with depressions of up to 15% seen during local
night in Northern and Equatorial regions. MUFs are expected to
be around predicted monthly values for the remainder of the forecast
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 44800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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