[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 12 issued 2330 UT on 19 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 20 09:30:22 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low. The most significant flare 
was a C7 at 1126UT with associated Type II and Type IV radio 
bursts. SDO AIA131 images indicate the most likely region responsible 
is around the western limb on the northern hemisphere. A small 
brightening can also be seen in region 11462(S24W31) at the same 
time which is a more likely origin for the radio bursts seen. 
No Earth directed CME appears to have originated from this event. 
A C1 flare, peaking at 1515UT, was observed from region 11463(S26W36). 
LASCO imagery is currently unavailable, however STEREO-A coronagraph 
images show a CME with a possible Earth directed component in 
association with this event. If this event appears to be geoeffective 
once SOHO images are available for analysis then further information 
will be given in tomorrow's report. The solar wind speed decayed 
from around 450 to 340 Km/s over the day. The IMF Bz component 
has ranged between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is expected to be 
low to moderate over the next 3 days with some chance of isolated 
M class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11001022
      Darwin               3   22000022
      Townsville           6   22111132
      Learmonth            4   21111122
      Norfolk Island       2   11000021
      Camden               2   01001022
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Hobart               3   12101121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100001
      Casey                5   23201112
      Mawson              21   42200065
      Davis               11   23322124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3320 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr     5    Quiet
21 Apr     5    Quiet
22 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been Quiet and these conditions 
are expected to persist for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Apr    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values during 
local daytime with depressions of up to 25% seen during local 
night. MUFs are expected to be around predicted monthly values 
for the remainder of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 428 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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