[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 12 issued 2332 UT on 18 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 19 09:33:00 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Apr             20 Apr             21 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with several C class flares, 
the most significant being a C8 at 1239UT and a C5 at 1706UT 
with an associated Type II radio burst with an estimated shock 
speed of 620 km/s . These flares all originated from region 11463(S26W36) 
a new region which has appeared and evolved rapidly and continues 
to grow at time of writing. SOHO/LASCO and STEREO A/B imagery 
is largely unavailable at the required times to characterise 
in detail any resulting CMEs. On presently available data no 
significant CMEs with geoeffective potential are seen. Further 
analysis will be given in tomorrow's report when more data should 
be available. The solar wind speed ranged between 380-480 km/s 
with the IMF Bz component fluctuating between +/- 5nT until around 
10UT when the fluctuations reduced to around +/- 2nT. Solar activity 
is expected to be low to moderate over the next 3 days. Region 
11463 is still evolving and may become a region with M class 
flare potential. Other regions on the disc seems mostly stable 
at present.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23212211
      Darwin               6   23221211
      Townsville           9   33322221
      Learmonth            8   33222212
      Norfolk Island       5   22211211
      Camden               6   23312110
      Canberra             2   12201100
      Hobart               6   23212211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    10   23224310
      Casey                8   33321111
      Mawson              30   54431346
      Davis               17   33432251

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1032 3243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Apr     5    Quiet
20 Apr     5    Quiet
21 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were largely Unsettled till around 
16UT after which conditions have been Quiet. Quiet conditions 
are expected to prevail over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Apr    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally enhanced above predicted monthly 
values between around 04-08UT in northern and equatorial regions. 
This was followed by night time depressions of up to 20%. MUFs 
were generally around predicted monthly values for central and 
southern regions. MUFs are expected to be around predicted monthly 
values for the remainder of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    47700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list