[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 12 issued 2330 UT on 17 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 18 09:30:07 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Apr             19 Apr             20 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with a single long duration 
C1 flare from region 11461(N13E66) which has rotated onto the 
disc over the last day. This region was most likely the source of 
yesterdays M1 flare with associated CME. Today's flare produced a 
CME seen in LASCO imagery however it does not appear to be Earth 
directed. A further CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery 
from around 1500UT and appears to be directed out the western limb 
and is also unlikely to be geo-effective. The solar wind speed 
increased from around 320 to 420 km/s over the day. The IMF Bz 
component fluctuated between +/- 8nT with two periods, between 
09-11UT and 14-18UT of sustained southward orientation of greater 
then -5nT. Solar flare activity is expected to remain Low for 
the next 3 days with some chance of M class flares from region 
11459(S15E40) and region 11461.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11222231
      Darwin               7   11222232
      Townsville          11   22233332
      Learmonth            8   21222332
      Norfolk Island       6   11222230
      Camden               7   11223231
      Canberra             4   00122130
      Hobart              10   11233332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    13   00224351
      Casey               11   23323232
      Mawson              17   41232353
      Davis                7   2-------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2200 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled over 
the last day. The Earth is currently in a moderate speed solar 
wind stream and the orientation of the IMF has been favourable 
for coupling with the geomagnetic field. These solar wind condition 
may persist for the next day leading to further unsettled conditions 
before returning to ambient conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Apr    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in equatorial regions were highly variable over 
the last day with no sustained depressed periods. In mainland 
regions MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with some 
mild overnight depressions in Northern Australia. MUFs are expected 
to be remain near predicted monthly values for the remainder 
of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:    37100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list