[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 12 issued 2358 UT on 16 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 17 09:58:27 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
*** CORRECTED COPY, SOLAR COMMENT UPDATED ***
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 1748UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: No X-ray flares of C class or greater were observed
originating from visible regions however two flares, a C1 at
0046UT and M1 at 1745UT, were observed around the north east
limb. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed. The solar wind
speed declined from around 420 to 320 km/s. Region 11455(Dro
N04W65) is declining while region 11459(Eao S16E56) is stable.
The IMF Bz component ranged between +2/-4 nT. Solar activity
is expected to be Low over the next 3 days with a some change
of isolated M-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21102111
Darwin 4 22101112
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 32012112
Norfolk Island 2 11001111
Camden 2 11002100
Canberra 0 10001000
Hobart 4 11112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 20001000
Casey 7 33211221
Mawson 10 33211214
Davis 9 33321221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1212 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 5 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
19 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to
remain mostly Quiet for the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in equatorial regions were highly variable over
the last day with some depressed periods of up to 25%. In mainland
regions MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with some
mild overnight depressions in Northern Australia. MUFs are expected
to be remain near predicted monthly values for the remainder
of the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 60400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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