[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 12 issued 2358 UT on 16 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 17 09:58:27 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
*** CORRECTED COPY, SOLAR COMMENT UPDATED ***
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.7    1748UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Apr             18 Apr             19 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: No X-ray flares of C class or greater were observed 
originating from visible regions however two flares, a C1 at 
0046UT and M1 at 1745UT, were observed around the north east 
limb. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed. The solar wind 
speed declined from around 420 to 320 km/s. Region 11455(Dro 
N04W65) is declining while region 11459(Eao S16E56) is stable. 
The IMF Bz component ranged between +2/-4 nT. Solar activity 
is expected to be Low over the next 3 days with a some change 
of isolated M-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21102111
      Darwin               4   22101112
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            5   32012112
      Norfolk Island       2   11001111
      Camden               2   11002100
      Canberra             0   10001000
      Hobart               4   11112211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   20001000
      Casey                7   33211221
      Mawson              10   33211214
      Davis                9   33321221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   1212 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Apr     5    Quiet
18 Apr     5    Quiet
19 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to 
remain mostly Quiet for the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Apr    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in equatorial regions were highly variable over 
the last day with some depressed periods of up to 25%. In mainland 
regions MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with some 
mild overnight depressions in Northern Australia. MUFs are expected 
to be remain near predicted monthly values for the remainder 
of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:    60400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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