[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 12 issued 2353 UT on 14 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 15 09:53:19 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr:  98/45

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Apr             16 Apr             17 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Two new regions 1458(N07E70) and 1459(S15E79) have been numbered 
today. The anticipated coronal hole effect is keeping the solar 
wind stream strong. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 
580 to 530 km/s during the UT today. The Bz component of IMF 
fluctuated between +/-4nT for most parts of the UT day. Solar wind 
stream is expected to gradually weaken over the next 24 hours as 
the coronal hole effect declines. Solar activity is expected 
to stay at very low levels for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
with Isolated Active Periods 

Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23222221
      Darwin               7   23221222
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            9   33222321
      Norfolk_Island       5   22221121
      Camden               7   23222221
      Canberra             3   11121210
      Hobart               7   23222221
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
      Macquarie_Island     7   22232221
      Casey               13   34322331
      Mawson              30   46442353
      Davis               27   44433363
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            41   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             22   4544 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Apr     6    Quiet 
17 Apr     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated 
active periods were observed today. Geomagnetic activity may 
continue to stay enhanced at mostly Unsettled levels on 
15 April and then decline down to quiet conditions on 16 April 
as the current coronal hole effect is expected to further weaken. 
Mostly Quiet levels of activity may be expected on 17 April too. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions may be observed on 15 April, mainly 
on high and possibly some mid latitudes due to expected continued 
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. Mostly normal 
HF conditions on most locations may be expected on 16 and 17 
April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Apr    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
16 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUF were mostly normal today with periods of depressions 
at most locations. Minor MUF depressions may be observed on 
15 April, especially at high and possibly some mid latitude  
locations due to expected continued enhancements in geomagnetic 
activity levels on this day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected on 16 and 17 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 593 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   193000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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