[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 12 issued 2350 UT on 15 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 16 09:50:46 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Two low
C-class flares were observed from beyond the north-eastern limb
today. A slow partial halo CME, associated with a B9 X-ray event
(0908UT) from region 1454(S12W00), was observed today. This CME
is not expected to have any significant earthward component.
As anticipated, the coronal hole effect is weakening. Solar wind
speed gradually decreased from 500 to 420 km/s during the UT
today. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between +/-4nT for
most parts of the UT day. Solar wind stream is expected to show
further gradual weakening over the next 24 hours as the coronal
hole effect declines. Solar activity is expected to stay at low
levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11112121
Darwin 4 11112122
Townsville 6 22222121
Learmonth 5 21212121
Norfolk_Island 4 3-111021
Camden 4 11112121
Canberra 1 01111010
Hobart 4 11122121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
Macquarie_Island 2 00122010
Casey 10 33312231
Mawson 21 23321364
Davis 21 23432263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 4421 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 6 Quiet
17 Apr 4 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions
were observed today. Mostly quiet conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were
observed today. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were
observed today. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 566 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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