[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 12 issued 2350 UT on 15 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 16 09:50:46 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Apr             17 Apr             18 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Two low 
C-class flares were observed from beyond the north-eastern limb 
today. A slow partial halo CME, associated with a B9 X-ray event 
(0908UT) from region 1454(S12W00), was observed today. This CME 
is not expected to have any significant earthward component. 
As anticipated, the coronal hole effect is weakening. Solar wind 
speed gradually decreased from 500 to 420 km/s during the UT 
today. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between +/-4nT for 
most parts of the UT day. Solar wind stream is expected to show 
further gradual weakening over the next 24 hours as the coronal 
hole effect declines. Solar activity is expected to stay at low 
levels for the next three days. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112121
      Darwin               4   11112122
      Townsville           6   22222121
      Learmonth            5   21212121
      Norfolk_Island       4   3-111021
      Camden               4   11112121
      Canberra             1   01111010
      Hobart               4   11122121
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
      Macquarie_Island     2   00122010
      Casey               10   33312231
      Mawson              21   23321364
      Davis               21   23432263
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   4421 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Apr     6    Quiet 
17 Apr     4    Quiet 
18 Apr     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
were observed today. Mostly quiet conditions may be expected 
for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were 
observed today. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected 
for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Apr    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were 
observed today. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected 
for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 566 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   136000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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