[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 12 issued 2338 UT on 13 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 14 09:38:58 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Apr             15 Apr             16 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
The anticipated coronal hole effect is keeping the solar wind 
stream strong. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 500 
to 650 km/s during the first six hours of the UT today and then 
decreased to 580 km/s by around 2300UT. The Bz component of IMF 
fluctuated between +/-9nT for the first five hours, staying 
southwards for most parts of this period. Bz stayed between 
+/-4nT for most parts of the remaining UT day. Solar wind stream 
is expected stay strong for the next two days due to the continued 
effect of the coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to stay 
at very low levels for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
with Isolated Active Periods 

Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33331222
      Darwin              11   33332222
      Townsville          11   33332222
      Learmonth           13   43332232
      Norfolk_Island      10   33331212
      Camden              13   33441222
      Canberra             7   22330211
      Hobart              14   33442222
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
      Macquarie_Island    21   34553311
      Casey               13   43332322
      Mawson              45   66433356
      Davis               39   64443365
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              47   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   1421 1354     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Apr    13    Unsettled to Active 
15 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Apr     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated 
active periods were observed today. Geomagnetic activity may 
continue to stay enhanced at Unsettled to Active levels on 
14 April, and mostly Unsettled then declining down to Quiet 
conditions on 15 April due to the continued effect of a high 
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. Mostly Quiet 
levels of activity may be expected on 16 April. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
15 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed 
from 14 to 15 April, mainly on mid and high latitudes due 
to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
on these days. Mostly normal HF conditions on most locations 
may be expected on 16 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Apr    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Apr    70    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values 
15 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
16 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUF were mostly normal today with periods of depressions 
at most locations. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be 
observed on 14 April and at times on 15 April, especially at 
mid and high latitudes due to expected continued enhancements 
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. Mostly normal 
HF conditions may be expected on 16 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   134000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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