[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 12 issued 2352 UT on 12 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 13 09:52:38 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 
hours. The anticipated coronal hole effect has started to 
strengthen the solar wind stream. Solar wind speed gradually 
increased from 300 to 600 km/s and Bz fluctuated between 
+/-9nT during most parts of the UT day today. Solar wind 
stream is expected to stay strong for the next three days 
due to the effect of a coronal hole. Solar activity is 
expected to stay at very low levels for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled with Isolated
Active Periods

Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23221343
      Darwin              13   13222443
      Townsville          13   23322343
      Learmonth           16   2322245-
      Norfolk Island       8   13221232
      Camden              11   13221343
      Canberra            10   32211342
      Hobart              12   13321343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    12   02231443
      Casey               13   23321343
      Mawson              52   35432477
      Davis               33   24432374

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2122 1002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active
14 Apr    13    Unsettled to Active
15 Apr    10    Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated 
active periods were observed today. Geomagnetic activity may 
continue to stay enhanced at Unsettled to Active levels on 13 
and 14 April, and mostly Unsettled then declining down to quiet 
conditions on 15 April due to the effect of a high speed solar 
wind stream from a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
14 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed 
from 13 to 14 April, mainly on mid and high latitudes due 
to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
on these days. Minor depressions on mid and high latitudes 
are possible on 15 April too.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Apr    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr    60    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Apr    60    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Apr    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: MUF were mostly normal today with periods of 
depressions at most locations. Minor to moderate MUF 
depressions may be observed from 13 to 14 April, especially 
at mid and high latitudes due to expected continued 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this 
period. HF conditions may return to mostly normal levels 
on 15 April with some possibility of minor depressions 
at mid and high latitudes on this day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    43900 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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