[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 12 issued 2352 UT on 12 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 13 09:52:38 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24
hours. The anticipated coronal hole effect has started to
strengthen the solar wind stream. Solar wind speed gradually
increased from 300 to 600 km/s and Bz fluctuated between
+/-9nT during most parts of the UT day today. Solar wind
stream is expected to stay strong for the next three days
due to the effect of a coronal hole. Solar activity is
expected to stay at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled with Isolated
Active Periods
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 23221343
Darwin 13 13222443
Townsville 13 23322343
Learmonth 16 2322245-
Norfolk Island 8 13221232
Camden 11 13221343
Canberra 10 32211342
Hobart 12 13321343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
Macquarie Island 12 02231443
Casey 13 23321343
Mawson 52 35432477
Davis 33 24432374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2122 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Apr 13 Unsettled to Active
15 Apr 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated
active periods were observed today. Geomagnetic activity may
continue to stay enhanced at Unsettled to Active levels on 13
and 14 April, and mostly Unsettled then declining down to quiet
conditions on 15 April due to the effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
14 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed
from 13 to 14 April, mainly on mid and high latitudes due
to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days. Minor depressions on mid and high latitudes
are possible on 15 April too.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 60 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 60 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUF were mostly normal today with periods of
depressions at most locations. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions may be observed from 13 to 14 April, especially
at mid and high latitudes due to expected continued
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this
period. HF conditions may return to mostly normal levels
on 15 April with some possibility of minor depressions
at mid and high latitudes on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 43900 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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