[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 12 issued 2354 UT on 11 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 12 09:54:55 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Apr             13 Apr             14 Apr
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed stayed between 300 and 360 km/s and Bz stayed 
between +/-5nT during most parts of the UT day today. 
Solar wind stream may get some strength from 12 April due 
to the expected effect of a coronal hole. Solar activity is 
expected to stay at very low levels for the next three days. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event 
beginning 11/0920UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21321012
      Darwin               6   22322002
      Townsville           7   22322122
      Learmonth            7   22322112
      Norfolk Island       5   21321011
      Camden               4   11321002
      Canberra             2   10211001
      Hobart               4   12221102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   10120000
      Casey                8   33321112
      Mawson              11   32222005
      Davis               11   2332----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       12   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3220 0113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr    13    Unsettled to Active
14 Apr    13    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 
11 April. Geomagnetic activity may continue to stay enhanced 
at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 12 April, and mostly Unsettled 
with some Active periods on 13 April and 14 April as a coronal 
hole is becoming geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
13 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
14 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed from 
12 to 14 April, mainly on mid and high latitudes due to expected 
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Apr    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Apr    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
13 Apr    60    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Apr    60    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUF were mostly normal today with periods of enhancements 
at low latitude and some depressions at mid latitude locations. 
Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed from 12 to 
14 April especially at mid and high latitudes due to expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    37500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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