[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 12 issued 2355 UT on 10 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 11 10:52:56 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed stayed between 320 and 360 km/s and Bz stayed 
mostly between +/-5nT during most parts of the UT day today. 
Solar wind stream may get some strength from 11 April due to 
the expected effect of a coronal hole and any possible partial 
earthward component of the previously observed CME activity. 
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the 
next three days. 





-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111112
      Darwin               3   --111112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   22122212
      Norfolk_Island       4   21111112
      Camden               3   11111111
      Canberra             0   00010001
      Hobart               3   21111111
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
      Macquarie_Island     0   10000001
      Casey                6   33210012
      Mawson              18   52211145
      Davis                7   22222123
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              3   1100 0022     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr     7    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Apr    10    Unsettled 
13 Apr    13    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed on 10 April.
Geomagnetic 
activity may show enhancements to Quiet to Unsettled on 11 April, 
mostly Unsettled with isolated Active periods on 12 April and 
Unsettled to Active on 13 April as a coronal hole is expected 
to take a geoeffective position from 11 April. A minor possible 
effect from a CME may also cause slight rise in activity on 11 
April. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
13 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions on 11 April and minor to moderate 
depressions on 12 and 13 April may be observed mainly on mid 
and high latitudes due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels on these days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Apr    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr    65    Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
12 Apr    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Apr    55    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed at most locations in the 
Australian region overnight. Minor MUF depressions on 11 April 
and minor to moderate depressions on 12 and 13 April may be possible 
due expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during 
this period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    36600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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