[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 12 issued 2357 UT on 09 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 10 09:57:09 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Apr             11 Apr             12 Apr
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Two C-class 
flares were observed today, the largest being a C3.9 event from 
region 1451(N17W73). The C3.9 event peaked at 1244UT and was 
associated to a Type II radio sweep along with an associated 
CME that first appeared in the LASCO imagery at 1325UT. This 
CME does not seem to be having any significant earthward component. 
Solar wind speed stayed 320 and 360 km/s and Bz stayed mostly 
close to the normal value during most parts of the UT day today. 
Bz showed some fluctuations (between +/-7nT) after around 1700UT. 
Solar wind stream may get some strength from 11 April due to 
the expected effect of a coronal hole and any possible partial 
earthward component of today's CME. Solar activity is expected 
to stay at very low levels for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100012
      Darwin               1   1110001-
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            4   11111122
      Norfolk Island       1   11000011
      Camden               1   11100011
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               3   12110112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                5   22210122
      Mawson              15   31012055
      Davis               11   22222144

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2111 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Apr     5    Quiet
11 Apr     7    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Apr    10    Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions on 10 April and Quiet to Unsettled 
on 11 April and Unsettled on 12 April may be expected as a coronal 
hole is expected to take a geoeffective position from 11 April. 
A minor possible effect from a CME may also cause slight rise 
in activity on 11 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions may be observed mainly on mid 
and high latitudes on 11 and 12 April due and expected rise in 
geomagnetic activity levels on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Apr    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Apr    65    Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Apr    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed at most locations in the 
Australian region overnight. Mostly normal HF conditions may 
be expected on 10 April with the possibility of minor depressions 
on 11 and 12 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    58800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list