[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 12 issued 2344 UT on 08 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 9 09:44:39 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Apr             10 Apr             11 Apr
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Only B class X-ray events were observed today. No large 
or magnetically complex regions are on the disc. No new regions 
were numbered today. Solar activity is expected to be predominately 
Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar wind speed remained low at 
between 340-380Km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-2nT for 
most of the reporting period. A possible glancing blow from the 
CME observed on April 5 may elevate slightly the wind speed and 
density early day 1 of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121111
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           6   22222212
      Learmonth            5   22121211
      Norfolk Island       3   11021111
      Camden               3   11121101
      Canberra             0   00010000
      Hobart               4   22121111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   11030000
      Casey                9   34311121
      Mawson              12   32321243
      Davis               11   23422231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary             14   2434 4212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Apr    10    Mostly Quiet with the slight chance of isolated 
                Unsettled to Active levels.
10 Apr     7    Quiet
11 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at Quiet levels for the 
Australian region during 8 April, with some Unsettled and Active 
levels observed at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be predominantly Quiet over the next few days. There is the 
small chance of isolated Unsettled to Active levels with possible 
glancing CME impact early on day 1 of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
11 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Apr    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.      
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
10 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
11 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed at most locations in the 
Australian region overnight. These conditions may continue for 
the next 2 days. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected 
on 11 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    55500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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