[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 12 issued 2344 UT on 08 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 9 09:44:39 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Only B class X-ray events were observed today. No large
or magnetically complex regions are on the disc. No new regions
were numbered today. Solar activity is expected to be predominately
Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar wind speed remained low at
between 340-380Km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-2nT for
most of the reporting period. A possible glancing blow from the
CME observed on April 5 may elevate slightly the wind speed and
density early day 1 of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11121111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 6 22222212
Learmonth 5 22121211
Norfolk Island 3 11021111
Camden 3 11121101
Canberra 0 00010000
Hobart 4 22121111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 11030000
Casey 9 34311121
Mawson 12 32321243
Davis 11 23422231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 14 2434 4212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 10 Mostly Quiet with the slight chance of isolated
Unsettled to Active levels.
10 Apr 7 Quiet
11 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at Quiet levels for the
Australian region during 8 April, with some Unsettled and Active
levels observed at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be predominantly Quiet over the next few days. There is the
small chance of isolated Unsettled to Active levels with possible
glancing CME impact early on day 1 of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed at most locations in the
Australian region overnight. These conditions may continue for
the next 2 days. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
on 11 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 55500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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