[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 12 issued 2346 UT on 07 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 8 09:46:57 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low during 7 April with a C2
Xray flare from active region 1452(N17W23). This region gradually
decayed during the period. Region 1450(N15W59) is now magnetic
class beta gamma and has decayed somewhat. Solar activity is
expected to be predominantly Low for the forecast period with
the small chance of M-class flares. Solar wind speeds increased
slowly during the past 24 hours from approximately 320 km/s and
are presently around 380 km/s. The IMF Bz recovered from a sustained
southwards period around 12UT and remained mostly stable over
the rest of the UT day. Solar wind speeds may become slightly
elevated with the possible glancing CME impact late on day 1
of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 22243101
Darwin 6 22232101
Townsville 10 22243222
Learmonth 10 32342211
Norfolk Island 8 22243001
Camden 7 22243000
Canberra 4 11232000
Hobart 9 22343101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 27 22375000
Casey 12 43333112
Mawson 11 34332112
Davis 20 43544212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr 12 Unsettled
10 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Active until around
13UT, Quiet conditions were observed for the later part of the
UT day when the IMF Bz recovered from the sustained southwards
period. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to
Unsettled with the chance of Active periods late in the UT day
for 8 April with a possible glancing CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the next few days with some slightly degraded conditions possible
at times for 8-9 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly near
predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to remain mostly
near predicted monthly values for the next three days with isolated
slight depressions at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 44300 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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