[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 12 issued 2346 UT on 07 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 8 09:46:57 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low during 7 April with a C2 
Xray flare from active region 1452(N17W23). This region gradually 
decayed during the period. Region 1450(N15W59) is now magnetic 
class beta gamma and has decayed somewhat. Solar activity is 
expected to be predominantly Low for the forecast period with 
the small chance of M-class flares. Solar wind speeds increased 
slowly during the past 24 hours from approximately 320 km/s and 
are presently around 380 km/s. The IMF Bz recovered from a sustained 
southwards period around 12UT and remained mostly stable over 
the rest of the UT day. Solar wind speeds may become slightly 
elevated with the possible glancing CME impact late on day 1 
of the forecast period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22243101
      Darwin               6   22232101
      Townsville          10   22243222
      Learmonth           10   32342211
      Norfolk Island       8   22243001
      Camden               7   22243000
      Canberra             4   11232000
      Hobart               9   22343101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    27   22375000
      Casey               12   43333112
      Mawson              11   34332112
      Davis               20   43544212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1000 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr    12    Unsettled
10 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Active until around 
13UT, Quiet conditions were observed for the later part of the 
UT day when the IMF Bz recovered from the sustained southwards 
period. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to 
Unsettled with the chance of Active periods late in the UT day 
for 8 April with a possible glancing CME impact.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 
the next few days with some slightly degraded conditions possible 
at times for 8-9 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Apr    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly near 
predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to remain mostly 
near predicted monthly values for the next three days with isolated 
slight depressions at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    44300 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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