[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 12 issued 2334 UT on 06 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 7 09:34:16 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past day with only 
B-class flares. Low activity is expected for the next 3 days. 
Satellite imagery of the CME associated with the C1 flare observed 
at 2110UT on the 5th has become available and suggests possible 
glancing blow late on the 8th or early on the 9th of April UT. 
The solar wind speed has ranged around ambient levels with mostly 
northward Bz IMF.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21110001
      Darwin               3   22100002
      Townsville           5   22211112
      Learmonth            4   31110-02
      Norfolk Island       1   11100001
      Camden               5   12330001
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               2   21100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey                9   24411011
      Mawson              14   32110116
      Davis                5   22221112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   3345 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr     7    Quiet
08 Apr     8    Unsettled
09 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the 7th of April with 
the chance of some unsettled periods later in the day due to 
the expected influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. This 
stream is expected to cause unsettled conditions on the 8th. 
A possible glancing blow from the CME observed late on the 5th 
may strike late on the 8th or early on the 9th, possibly causing 
on isolated Active period followed by unsettled conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Apr    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs have been around predicted monthly values, with 
some large enhancements seen at Cocos Island. Conditions are 
expected to be near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days. 
Some variable mildly enhanced and depressed periods are possible 
on the 8th and 9th due to some expected mild geomagnetic activity, 
however at this stage significant depressed periods are not anticipated.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    35500 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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