[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 12 issued 2348 UT on 03 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 4 09:48:57 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Apr             05 Apr             06 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Very Low with only a B class 
X-ray flares and active regions are stable with low complexity. 
Old AR1429 from early March has largely dissipated on this rotation. 
Solar wind speeds were low to average 300-350 km/s during the 
past 24 hours. A small northern coronal hole may increase solar 
wind speed slightly 4th April. IMF Bz was again southwards for 
most of the day, conducive to merging with the geomagnetic field. 
A weak CME from slightly east of the central meridian, associated 
with AR1450, was observed ~0230UT 2 April and appears to have 
an earthward directed component although it is predominantly 
northwards. The CME may cause a weak geomagnetic disturbance 
5th April.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111022
      Darwin               3   11110022
      Townsville           6   22212122
      Learmonth            5   22111122
      Norfolk Island       2   12101011
      Camden               3   11111022
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Hobart               4   12111112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   12122000
      Casey                6   23111122
      Mawson              37   54322257
      Davis               15   33322225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3321 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Apr     5    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels for the Australian 
region. The continuing extended IMF Bz southwards caused some 
Active to Storm levels at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be predominantly Quiet over 4th April with occasional 
Unsettled levels possible from a small coronal hole wind stream. 
Unsettled possible 5 April from the flank of a weak CME launched 
2 April ~0230UT from AR1450 near the solar central meridian facing 
Earth.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Apr    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Apr    75    0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
05 Apr    70    0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
06 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly near 
predicted monthly values with northern near equatorial sites 
showing overnight MUF depressions, possibly from seasonal neutral 
winds in the thermosphere near 300km altitude driving the equatorial 
fountain, as geomagnetic activity is Quiet. MUFs are expected 
to remain mostly near or slightly below predicted monthly values 
for 3-6th April as sunspot number on the disc is slightly below 
the average cycle 24 rise. Some slight depression of MUFs possible 
on 5 April if a weak CME causes a geomagnetic disturbance.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    36600 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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