[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 12 issued 2334 UT on 02 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 3 09:34:25 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Very Low and is expected to 
be Low on 3-5 April. Only a B class X-ray flare was observed 
and active regions are stable with low complexity. Old AR1429 
from early March has largely dissipated on this rotation and the 
largest spot group AR1445 is also quiet. Solar wind speeds 
ranged between 340-380 km/s during the past 24 hours. 
IMF Bz was southwards for most of the day, conducive to merging 
with the geomagnetic field. A weak CME from slightly east of 
the central meridian was observed ~0230UT and appears to have 
an earthward directed component although it is predominantly 
northwards. The CME may cause a weak geomagnetic disturbance 
5th April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22213312
      Darwin               7   22222312
      Townsville           8   22222322
      Learmonth            7   22113312
      Norfolk Island       5   22212211
      Camden               6   22223201
      Canberra             4   11103201
      Hobart               8   22223312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    15   13245321
      Casey               13   23523212
      Mawson              29   54423336
      Davis               13   33333322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1211 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr     5    Quiet
04 Apr     5    Quiet
05 Apr    10    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was been at Quiet to Unsettled 
levels for the Australian region. The extended IMF Bz caused 
some Active to Storm levels high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be predominantly Quiet over the next few days 
with Unsettled levels possible for 5 April with passage from 
a weak CME launched 2 April ~0230UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Apr    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly near 
predicted monthly values. Southerly site MUFs were a little depressed 
due to high latitude geomagnetic activity and northern near equatorial 
sites were more variable than the centre of the region. MUFs 
are expected to remain mostly near predicted monthly values for 
3-4th April. Some slight depression of MUFs possible on 5 April 
if a weak CME causes a geomagnetic disturbance.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    42100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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