[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 12 issued 2347 UT on 01 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 2 09:48:00 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Apr             03 Apr             04 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Very Low during 1 April. Solar 
activity is expected to be predominantly Low for 2-3 April with 
the increasing chance of M-class flares on 4 April. Solar wind 
speeds ranged between 300-400 km/s during the past 24 hours. 
There was a small discontinuity in the IMF around 08UT on 1 April, 
with Bz values ranging between -5 to -10 nT since. This may be 
due to very weak CME effects or a solar sector boundary crossing. 
Solar wind speeds are expected to be predominantly low for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12122232
      Darwin               8   -3221232
      Townsville          10   23222332
      Learmonth           10   23222332
      Norfolk Island       6   12122222
      Camden               6   12121231
      Canberra             4   02011230
      Hobart               7   12122232    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    10   02133430
      Casey                9   23232222
      Mawson              20   33222355
      Davis               11   23332232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0000 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Apr     6    Quiet
04 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at Quiet to Unsettled 
levels for the Australian region during 1 April, with some isolated 
Minor Storm levels observed at one high latitude station. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be predominantly Quiet over the next 
few days with Unsettled levels possible for 2 April. Isolated 
Active levels may be observed at high latitudes during 2 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 
the next few days with some slightly degraded conditions possible 
at times for 2-3 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Apr    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Apr    85    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
03 Apr    85    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
04 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly near 
predicted monthly values during 1 April. MUFs are expected to 
remain mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three 
days with some isolated slight depressions possible at times 
for 2-3 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    63800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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