[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 12 issued 2347 UT on 01 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 2 09:48:00 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Very Low during 1 April. Solar
activity is expected to be predominantly Low for 2-3 April with
the increasing chance of M-class flares on 4 April. Solar wind
speeds ranged between 300-400 km/s during the past 24 hours.
There was a small discontinuity in the IMF around 08UT on 1 April,
with Bz values ranging between -5 to -10 nT since. This may be
due to very weak CME effects or a solar sector boundary crossing.
Solar wind speeds are expected to be predominantly low for the
next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 12122232
Darwin 8 -3221232
Townsville 10 23222332
Learmonth 10 23222332
Norfolk Island 6 12122222
Camden 6 12121231
Canberra 4 02011230
Hobart 7 12122232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
Macquarie Island 10 02133430
Casey 9 23232222
Mawson 20 33222355
Davis 11 23332232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0000 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Apr 6 Quiet
04 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at Quiet to Unsettled
levels for the Australian region during 1 April, with some isolated
Minor Storm levels observed at one high latitude station. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be predominantly Quiet over the next
few days with Unsettled levels possible for 2 April. Isolated
Active levels may be observed at high latitudes during 2 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the next few days with some slightly degraded conditions possible
at times for 2-3 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 85 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
03 Apr 85 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
04 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly near
predicted monthly values during 1 April. MUFs are expected to
remain mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three
days with some isolated slight depressions possible at times
for 2-3 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 63800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list