[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 12 issued 2342 UT on 31 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 1 09:42:17 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Very Low during 31 March. Solar 
activity is expected to be predominantly Low for 1 April with 
the small chance of M-class flares. A weak CME observed in STEREO 
satellite imagery around 19UT on 28 March is primarily directed 
southward down out of the ecliptic plane, however, there is the 
small chance of a glancing impact from this event on day 1 of 
the forecast period although effects are only expected to be 
slight. CMEs observed in SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery during 
30 March appear predominantly directed to the N/NE and are not 
expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds declined slowly 
during the past 24 hours down from approximately 440 km/s and 
are presently around 360 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to be predominantly low for the next few days with the small 
chance that they may again become slightly elevated with the 
possible glancing CME impact on day 1 of the forecast period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111221
      Darwin               5   21111222
      Townsville           6   12212222
      Learmonth            5   11121321
      Norfolk Island       6   33011121
      Camden               4   11111221
      Canberra             1   20000110
      Hobart               4   11111221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000110
      Casey                7   23321120
      Mawson               8   23301232
      Davis                8   22312231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1211 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr     6    Quiet
03 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at Quiet levels for the 
Australian region during 31 March, with some Unsettled levels 
observed at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be predominantly Quiet over the next few days. There is the 
small chance of isolated Unsettled levels with possible glancing 
CME impact on day 1 of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly near 
predicted monthly values during 31 March. MUFs are expected to 
remain mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three 
days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    71900 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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