[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 12 issued 2342 UT on 31 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 1 09:42:17 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Very Low during 31 March. Solar
activity is expected to be predominantly Low for 1 April with
the small chance of M-class flares. A weak CME observed in STEREO
satellite imagery around 19UT on 28 March is primarily directed
southward down out of the ecliptic plane, however, there is the
small chance of a glancing impact from this event on day 1 of
the forecast period although effects are only expected to be
slight. CMEs observed in SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery during
30 March appear predominantly directed to the N/NE and are not
expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds declined slowly
during the past 24 hours down from approximately 440 km/s and
are presently around 360 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected
to be predominantly low for the next few days with the small
chance that they may again become slightly elevated with the
possible glancing CME impact on day 1 of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21111221
Darwin 5 21111222
Townsville 6 12212222
Learmonth 5 11121321
Norfolk Island 6 33011121
Camden 4 11111221
Canberra 1 20000110
Hobart 4 11111221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000110
Casey 7 23321120
Mawson 8 23301232
Davis 8 22312231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1211 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr 6 Quiet
03 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at Quiet levels for the
Australian region during 31 March, with some Unsettled levels
observed at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be predominantly Quiet over the next few days. There is the
small chance of isolated Unsettled levels with possible glancing
CME impact on day 1 of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly near
predicted monthly values during 31 March. MUFs are expected to
remain mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 71900 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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