[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 12 issued 2353 UT on 04 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 5 09:53:47 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with only a C class X-ray 
flare from AR1450. AR1450 and 1452 are small but now growing. 
AR1452 has some low potential (8/2%) for M/X class X-ray flares. 
There is also a long filament connecting AR1450 and 1452 which 
if it collapses may produce a CME and the AR pair is now approaching 
the most geoeffective position in solar longitude for CME launches. 
  Solar wind speed was low to average 320-360 km/s for most of 
the UT day, but dropped rapidly to only 300km/s at ~22UT coincident 
with a rapid IMF Bz southwards change. Bz was north most of the 
day but is currently near -10nT which is conducive to strong 
merging with the geomagnetic field. 
  A small northern coronal hole may increase solar wind speed slightly 4th
April. 
A weak CME from slightly east of the central meridian, associated with 
AR1450, was observed ~0230UT 2 April and appears to have an earthward 
directed component although it is predominantly northwards. The 
CME may cause a weak geomagnetic disturbance 5th April.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22111322
      Darwin               7   22112322
      Townsville           9   23212323
      Learmonth            9   32112422
      Norfolk Island       4   22001222
      Camden               5   22011312
      Canberra             3   11001212
      Hobart               7   22111323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     4   11002312
      Casey               12   33321224
      Mawson              20   44211226
      Davis               11   33322223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2210 0122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels with sporadic 
Unsettled for the Australian region. Solar wind speed was low 
to average for most of the UT day and a couple of abrupt speed 
and IMF Bz polarity changes would have driven the Unsettled periods. 
  Vsw dropped rapidly to only 300km/s at ~22UT coincident with 
a rapid IMF Bz southwards change. Bz is currently near -10nT 
which is conducive to strong merging with the geomagnetic field. 
This will cause an increase in polar geomagnetic activity that 
will become more global to Unsettled-Active if Bz persists at 
this southwards level for over ~6 hours (past 04UT 5th April). 
  If Bz returns to normal geomagnetic activity is expected to be 
predominantly Quiet over 4th April with occasional Unsettled 
levels possible from a small coronal hole wind stream. Unsettled 
possible 5 April from the flank of a weak CME launched 2 April 
~0230UT from AR1450 near the solar central meridian facing Earth.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Solar wind speed dropped rapidly to only 300km/s at 
~22UT 4th April coincident with a rapid IMF Bz southwards change. 
Bz is currently near -10nT which is conducive to strong merging 
with the geomagnetic field. This will cause an increase in polar 
geomagnetic activity and a disturbed polar ionosphere early in the 
UT day 5th April. This activity will become more global  
if Bz persists at this southwards level for over ~6 hours (past 
04UT 5th April) and some moderate (<15%) MUF reductions could 
occur.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Apr    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr    70    0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
06 Apr    70    0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
07 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly near 
predicted monthly values with northern near equatorial sites 
showing overnight MUF depressions, possibly from seasonal neutral 
winds in the thermosphere near 300km altitude driving the equatorial 
fountain, as geomagnetic activity was only Quiet with occasional 
Unsettled. MUFs are expected to remain mostly near or slightly 
below predicted monthly values for 5-6th April as, sunspot number 
on the disc is slightly below the average cycle 24 rise and there 
may be some moderate geomagnetic disturbances on those days such 
as from a weak CME launched 2 April that may effect a glancing 
blow late (UT) on the 5th (early morning 6th AEST).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 313 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    32900 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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