[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 23 09:31:34 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1002UT possible lower European
X1.5 1102UT probable all European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Background X-ray flux remained mostly at low C-class
levels. Newly assigned region 1302 (N13E75) produced an M1.1
flare at 1000 UT and an X1.4 flare at 1101 UT. Region 1295 (N23W61)
flared at C6.6 level. Region 1302 shows two large spots at this
time and is considered to have the potential for further X-class
flares. SOHO LASCO, STEREO and SDO images show a strong CME associated
with the X flare. This CME is expected to be geoeffective. Solar
wind parameters were mostly undisturbed. These parameters are
expected to become mildly disturbed later today, becoming disturbed
in the latter part of 24 Sep due to the CME reported above, then
settling over the 25 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11101121
Darwin 4 12200122
Townsville 7 12212232
Learmonth 5 22112121
Alice_Springs 3 11101121
Norfolk_Island 3 21101121
Gnangara 4 21112121
Camden 2 11001121
Canberra 2 11001121
Hobart 3 11101121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
Macquarie_Island 0 00001010
Casey 9 23411131
Davis 17 22222362
Mawson 26 41111556
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 0111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 12 Quiet with unsettled to active periods.
24 Sep 30 Unsettled with active to minor storm periods.
25 Sep 15 Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active to minor
storm periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 22 September
and is current for interval 24-25 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 45%
11-17 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 45%
04-10 and 22-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 25%
11-16 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Some night
spread F observed at Canberra and Hobart. No Learmonth
data 03-23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
24 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
25 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 21 September
and is current for interval 22-23 September (SWFs) . With solar
activity increasing, there is the chance of sudden disruptions
to communications (short wave fade-outs).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 54000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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