[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 22 09:29:14 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 1226UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Very low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 144/98 144/98 140/94
COMMENT: Background X-ray flux remained mostly at low C-class
levels with an M1.8 flare at 1223 UT from region 1301 (N20E41)
and C-class events from regions 1301 and 1295 (N22W48). Culgoora
Solar Observatory reports two new regions at N12E86 and S16E20.
SOHO LASCO and STEREO images indicate no Earth directed CMEs
during the reporting period. ACE data show solar wind parameters
were mostly undisturbed although there was a sudden density decrease
around 14 UT. Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly
undisturbed on 22 Sep becoming mildly disturbed in the latter
half of 23 Sep due to the effects of the CME on the 19 Sep and
weak coronal hole effects. Any disturbance is likely to subside
towards the end of 24 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 11122212
Darwin 5 11222112
Townsville 7 12232222
Learmonth 6 12132211
Alice_Springs 3 11121102
Norfolk_Island 3 11121111
Gnangara 4 11122211
Camden 4 11122102
Canberra 3 00122102
Hobart 5 01132202
Macquarie_Island 5 00133201
Casey 7 2--21213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1322 2022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 7 Quiet to unsettled
23 Sep 12 Quiet with unsettled to active periods
24 Sep 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Activity is expected to increase in the latter half
of 23 Sep due to CME and possible weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
enhancements to 20%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with mostly enhanced
MUFs to 30% after about 15 UT. Night spread F observed
at Hobart and Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 21 September
and is current for interval 22-23 September (SWFs) . With solar
activity increasing, there is the chance of sudden disruptions
to communications (short wave fade-outs).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 81900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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