[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 24 09:28:19 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0200UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.6 2219UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Background X-ray flux remained mostly at low C-class
levels. Regions 1295 (N24W74), 1296 (N28W54) and 1302 (N13E58)
produced a number of C-class flares, and two M1.6 flares (0159
UT and 2219 UT from region 1295). Available SOHO and STEREO images
show no CMEs during the reporting period. Solar wind parameters
were undisturbed. These parameters are expected to become disturbed
in the latter part of 24 Sep due to the CME from 22 Sep. Wind
parameters should settle over the 25 Sep. Previous X-flare
producing region 1283 is due for return to the north-east limb
around 25 Sep.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 21100002
Darwin 4 22210003
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 3 12111101
Alice_Springs 2 21100002
Norfolk_Island 1 11100011
Gnangara 3 21110111
Camden 2 21000002
Canberra 1 11000002
Hobart 1 11000002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
Macquarie_Island 0 01000000
Casey 7 23410012
Davis 6 23211112
Mawson 6 22100024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 30 Quiet. Active to minor storm periods in the latter
part of the period.
25 Sep 15 Active levels early, becoming quiet to unsettled.
26 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 22 September
and is current for interval 24-25 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : Began at 2105UT 23/09, Ended at 2135UT 23/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
30%, 00, 08-18 UT, and depressions to 24% 20-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
30%, 02-06 and 18-23 UT, and enhancements to 55%,
07-10 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
25%, 12-15 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 25%
from about 10 UT onward.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Depressions to 35% at Mawson 00-02 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
25 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible.
26 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 23 September
and is current for interval 24-26 September (SWFs) . With solar
activity increasing, there is the chance of sudden disruptions
to communications (short wave fade-outs).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 99300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list